Inside a Conversation Between Anton Korinek and Barbara DeLollis on the Urgency of AI Governance
In a thought-provoking conversation hosted by Harvard Business School’s Barbara DeLollis, Anton Korinek—professor of economics at the University of Virginia and a leading researcher on the economics of artificial intelligence—laid out a stark, urgent vision for the future: a world on the cusp of being radically reshaped by Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Their conversation, titled “The $100 Trillion Question: What Happens When AI Replaces Every Job?”, was less a speculative musing and more a data-driven diagnosis of the seismic shift barreling toward the global economy—and humanity itself.
AGI Isn’t a Distant Dream—It’s Knocking on the Door
Korinek began with a striking assertion: AGI is not decades away—it could be just years. And in many domains, from mathematics to textual analysis, today’s AI systems already outperform average humans. While elite human experts remain unmatched in narrow fields, the trajectory is clear: AI is improving fast, and benchmarks once thought to represent “human-level” capability are being saturated at a breathtaking pace.
For Korinek, this isn’t just a technical achievement—it’s a looming economic earthquake.
“If we do reach AGI,” he said, “that in itself would be an absolutely radical development on the economic front. And that kind of radical development would also require a radical response.”
What Happens When Work Becomes Obsolete?
The central question—“What happens when AI replaces every job?”—goes far beyond headlines and hype. Korinek sees it as an existential challenge for the global economy. With AGI systems capable of performing any cognitive task, human labor—currently the cornerstone of income and identity—becomes optional. In such a world, wage labor could lose relevance, upending the entire structure of income distribution.
This, Korinek argues, demands not just adaptation, but transformation.
“We need to fundamentally rethink our systems of income distribution. We need something like a universal basic capital or universal basic income… to ensure the benefits of AI are shared broadly.”
In his view, these ideas are radical only because the disruption AGI brings is itself unprecedented. If machines can replace nearly every job, then the foundational premise of modern economies—that people must work to earn a living—must be reimagined.
AI, Inequality, and the Threat of Political Instability
One of Korinek’s greatest concerns is inequality. Without proactive policy and governance, the gains of AI could become dangerously concentrated, both economically and geopolitically. “If lots of people lose their jobs, their income, their livelihood,” he warns, “then that’s more likely to give us destabilization.”
In his economic analysis, political unrest and inequality aren’t side effects—they are core risks of unmanaged AI transitions. A proactive approach to income redistribution, social safety nets, and education reform will be essential.
The Race for Power—and the Risk of Cutting Corners
When it comes to the competitive AI landscape, Korinek paints a paradox: while competition today is fierce, the path ahead likely leads to concentration. The most powerful models already require immense capital, compute, and data—barriers few can overcome.
“As these models get more expensive, only a small number of players will be able to afford to stay in the game.”
This consolidation brings governance challenges. How do we regulate entities with capabilities that rival national governments in power? How do we prevent companies from cutting corners in pursuit of competitive advantage—especially when safety precautions might slow progress?
Korinek underscores the need for regulatory institutions to level up fast—to develop deep expertise in AI technologies and enforce guardrails before the stakes become too high.
Why Governments Must Act Now
For Korinek, the time to act is not in the distant future, but immediately.
“We need actors within government who really understand the frontier of AI… who can contribute to the regulatory debate and mitigate the risks without holding back progress.”
Although current AI systems are powerful, Korinek suggests they haven’t yet crossed the danger threshold. That moment is coming—and without preparation, governments could find themselves outmatched, outpaced, and unable to respond effectively.
Global Cooperation: The Only Way Forward
Perhaps the most sobering part of the conversation came when DeLollis raised the issue of international collaboration. In Korinek’s view, AI is a global challenge that demands global governance. Yet, today’s reality is defined more by rivalry than cooperation, with leading AI nations locked in a technological arms race.
“Nobody wants this technology to create massive risks for humanity… but we need to talk to each other to ensure that common safety standards are established.”
Just as nuclear and chemical weapons required international treaties, AGI will necessitate coordinated oversight, shared norms, and crisis protocols. Without them, the risks—whether accidental or malicious—could span continents.
What Should We Be Teaching in the Age of AI?
If the future is coming faster than expected, what do we teach the next generation?
Korinek’s answer is clear: learn how to use AI as a force multiplier. In a world where machines handle much of the cognitive heavy lifting, the most valuable human skill will be the ability to collaborate with them, not compete against them.
Anton Korinek’s vision is not one of doom, but of disruption—radical, systemic, and urgent. The transition to AGI could yield extraordinary economic bounty, freeing humans from toil and expanding the frontiers of knowledge. But without foresight, regulation, and inclusion, it could also sow instability, inequality, and conflict.
The “$100 Trillion Question” isn’t just about money—it’s about what kind of society we want to live in when the machines we build can outthink, outwork, and outlast us.
If AGI is truly just years away, then the time to plan for the aftermath is now.